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Readying the Nukes Secret Plan Outlines the Unthinkable by William M. Arkin Los Angeles Times commentary, 10 March 2002 A secret policy review of the nation's nuclear policy puts forth chilling new contingencies for nuclear war.
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration, in a secret policy review completed
early this year, has ordered the Pentagon to draft contingency plans for
the use of
nuclear weapons against at least seven countries, naming not only Russia
and the
"axis of evil"--Iraq, Iran, and North Korea--but also China, Libya and
Syria.
In addition, the U.S. Defense Department has been told to prepare for the
possibility that nuclear weapons may be required in some future
Arab-Israeli crisis.
And, it is to develop plans for using nuclear weapons to retaliate against
chemical
or biological attacks, as well as "surprising military developments" of an
unspecified nature.
These and a host of other directives, including calls for developing
bunker-busting mini-nukes and nuclear weapons that reduce collateral
damage, are
contained in a still-classified document called the Nuclear Posture Review
(NPR),
which was delivered to Congress on Jan. 8.
Like all such documents since the dawning of the Atomic Age more than a
half-century ago, this NPR offers a chilling glimpse into the world of
nuclear-war
planners: With a Strangelovian genius, they cover every conceivable
circumstance in
which a president might wish to use nuclear weapons--planning in great
detail for a
war they hope never to wage.
In this top-secret domain, there has always been an inconsistency between
America's diplomatic objectives of reducing nuclear arsenals and
preventing the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, on the one hand, and the
military
imperative to prepare for the unthinkable, on the other.
Nevertheless, the Bush administration plan reverses an almost
two-decade-long
trend of relegating nuclear weapons to the category of weapons of last
resort. It
also redefines nuclear requirements in hurried post-Sept. 11 terms.
In these and other ways, the still-secret document offers insights into
the
evolving views of nuclear strategists in Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's
Defense
Department.
While downgrading the threat from Russia and publicly emphasizing their
commitment to reducing the number of long-range nuclear weapons, Defense
Department
strategists promote tactical and so-called "adaptive" nuclear capabilities
to deal
with contingencies where large nuclear arsenals are not demanded.
They seek a host of new weapons and support systems, including
conventional
military and cyber warfare capabilities integrated with nuclear
warfare. The end
product is a now-familiar post-Afghanistan model--with nuclear capability
added. It
combines precision weapons, long-range strikes, and special and covert
operations.
But the NPR's call for development of new nuclear weapons that reduce
"collateral
damage" myopically ignores the political, moral and military
implications--short-term and long--of crossing the nuclear threshold.
Under what circumstances might nuclear weapons be used under the new
posture? The
NPR says they "could be employed against targets able to withstand
nonnuclear
attack," or in retaliation for the use of nuclear, biological, or chemical
weapons,
or "in the event of surprising military developments."
Planning nuclear-strike capabilities, it says, involves the recognition of
"immediate, potential or unexpected" contingencies. North Korea, Iraq,
Iran, Syria
and Libya are named as "countries that could be involved" in all three
kinds of
threat. "All have long-standing hostility towards the United States and
its security
partners. All sponsor or harbor terrorists, and have active WMD [weapons
of mass
destruction] and missile programs."
China, because of its nuclear forces and "developing strategic
objectives," is
listed as "a country that could be involved in an immediate or potential
contingency." Specifically, the NPR lists a military confrontation over
the status
of Taiwan as one of the scenarios that could lead Washington to use
nuclear
weapons.
Other listed scenarios for nuclear conflict are a North Korean attack on
South
Korea and an Iraqi assault on Israel or its neighbors.
The second important insight the NPR offers into Pentagon thinking about
nuclear
policy is the extent to which the Bush administration's strategic planners
were
shaken by last September's terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and
the
Pentagon. Though Congress directed the new administration "to conduct a
comprehensive review of U.S. nuclear forces" before the events of
Sept. 11, the
final study is striking for its single-minded reaction to those tragedies.
Heretofore, nuclear strategy tended to exist as something apart from the
ordinary
challenges of foreign policy and military affairs. Nuclear weapons were
not just the
option of last resort, they were the option reserved for times when
national
survival hung in the balance--a doomsday confrontation with the Soviet
Union, for
instance.
Now, nuclear strategy seems to be viewed through the prism of
Sept. 11. For one
thing, the Bush administration's faith in old-fashioned deterrence is
gone. It no
longer takes a superpower to pose a dire threat to Americans.
"The terrorists who struck us on Sept. 11th were clearly not deterred by
doing so
from the massive U.S. nuclear arsenal," Rumsfeld told an audience at the
National
Defense University in late January.
Similarly, U.S. Undersecretary of State John R. Bolton said in a recent
interview, "We would do whatever is necessary to defend America's innocent
civilian
population .... The idea that fine theories of deterrence work against
everybody ...
has just been disproven by Sept. 11."
Moreover, while insisting they would go nuclear only if other options
seemed
inadequate, officials are looking for nuclear weapons that could play a
role in the
kinds of challenges the United States faces with Al Qaeda.
Accordingly, the NPR calls for new emphasis on developing such things as
nuclear
bunker-busters and surgical "warheads that reduce collateral damage," as
well as
weapons that could be used against smaller, more circumscribed
targets--"possible
modifications to existing weapons to provide additional yield
flexibility," in the
jargon-rich language of the review.
It also proposes to train U.S. Special Forces operators to play the same
intelligence gathering and targeting roles for nuclear weapons that they
now play
for conventional weapons strikes in Afghanistan. And cyber-warfare and
other
nonnuclear military capabilities would be integrated into nuclear-strike
forces to
make them more all-encompassing.
As for Russia, once the primary reason for having a U.S. nuclear strategy,
the
review says that while Moscow's nuclear programs remain cause for concern,
"ideological sources of conflict" have been eliminated, rendering a
nuclear
contingency involving Russia "plausible" but "not expected."
"In the event that U.S. relations with Russia significantly worsen in the
future," the review says, "the U.S. may need to revise its nuclear force
levels and
posture."
When completion of the NPR was publicly announced in January, Pentagon
briefers
deflected questions about most of the specifics, saying the information
was
classified. Officials did stress that, consistent with a Bush campaign
pledge, the
plan called for reducing the current 6,000 long-range nuclear weapons to
one-third
that number over the next decade. Rumsfeld, who approved the review late
last year,
said the administration was seeking "a new approach to strategic
deterrence," to
include missile defenses and improvements in nonnuclear capabilities.
Also, Russia would no longer be officially defined as "an enemy."
Beyond that, almost no details were revealed.
The classified text, however, is shot through with a worldview transformed
by
Sept. 11. The NPR coins the phrase "New Triad," which it describes as
comprising the
"offensive strike leg," ([US] nuclear and conventional forces) plus
"active and
passive defenses,"( [US] anti-missile systems and other defenses) and "a
responsive
defense infrastructure" ([US] ability to develop and produce nuclear
weapons and
resume nuclear testing). Previously, the nuclear "triad" was the bombers,
long-range
land-based missiles and submarine-launched missiles that formed the three
legs of
America's strategic arsenal.
The review emphasizes the integration of "new nonnuclear strategic
capabilities"
into nuclear-war plans. "New capabilities must be developed to defeat
emerging
threats such as hard and deeply-buried targets (HDBT), to find and attack
mobile and
re-locatable targets, to defeat chemical and biological agents, and to
improve
accuracy and limit collateral damage," the review says.
It calls for "a new strike system" using four converted Trident
submarines, an
unmanned combat air vehicle and a new air-launched cruise missile as
potential new
weapons.
Beyond new nuclear weapons, the review proposes establishing what it calls
an
"agent defeat" program, which defense officials say includes a
"boutique" approach
to finding new ways of destroying deadly chemical or biological warfare
agents, as
well as penetrating enemy facilities that are otherwise difficult to
attack. This
includes, according to the document, "thermal, chemical or radiological
neutralization of chemical/biological materials in production or storage
facilities."
Bush administration officials stress that the development and integration
of
nonnuclear capabilities into the nuclear force is what permits reductions
in
traditional long-range weaponry. But the blueprint laid down in the review
would
expand the breadth and flexibility of U.S. nuclear capabilities.
In addition to the new weapons systems, the review calls for incorporation
of
"nuclear capability" into many of the conventional systems now under
development. An
extended-range conventional cruise missile in the works for the U.S. Air
Force
"would have to be modified to carry nuclear warheads if
necessary." Similarly, the
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter should be modified to carry nuclear weapons "at
an
affordable price."
The review calls for research to begin next month on fitting an existing
nuclear
warhead into a new 5,000-pound "earth penetrating" munition.
Given the advances in electronics and information technologies in the past
decade, it is not surprising that the NPR also stresses improved
satellites and
intelligence, communications, and more robust high-bandwidth
decision-making
systems.
Particularly noticeable is the directive to improve U.S. capabilities in
the
field of "information operations," or cyber-warfare. The intelligence
community
"lacks adequate data on most adversary computer local area networks and
other
command and control systems," the review observes. It calls for
improvements in the
ability to "exploit" enemy computer networks, and the integration of
cyber-warfare
into the overall nuclear war database "to enable more effective targeting,
weaponeering, and combat assessment essential to the New Triad."
In recent months, when Bush administration officials talked about the
implications of Sept. 11 for long-term military policy, they have often
focused on
"homeland defense" and the need for an anti-missile shield. In truth, what
has
evolved since last year's terror attacks is an integrated, significantly
expanded
planning doctrine for nuclear wars.
_____________
William M. Arkin is a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University
School of
Advanced International Studies in Washington and an adjunct professor at
the U.S.
Air Force School of Advanced Airpower Studies. He is also a consultant to
a number
of nongovernmental organizations and a regular contributor to the Bulletin
of the
Atomic Scientists.
_____________
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